DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK...EXTREME SERN KS...SRN MO...AND NWRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK BASED ON CURRENT BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM THE WRN PART OF NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER SERN KS AND SWRN MO. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT 17-18Z FROM OUN/SGF/FWD INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PERSISTING ABOVE 850 MB THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S IN OK AND NEAR 90 IN NRN TX...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM 3500-5000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD. ...GA/FL... STRONGER STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY FROM SRN GA AND NRN FL INTO THE SWRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN GA/NRN FL. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE CELLS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..WEISS.. 05/20/2013