MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 325... VALID 222048Z - 222245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 325 CONTINUES. VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN MO INTO SERN KS. A MODIFIED 19Z SGF SOUNDING USING OBSERVED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE DRYLINE YIELDS OVER 5000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH A 300 MB LI OF -19C. ALSO DEPICTED IN THIS SOUNDING...AND ON NDS AND CNW PROFILERS...IS 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. EXISTING STORMS WILL PERSIST WITH AN EXTREME HAIL THREAT AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CYCLIC TORNADOES. TO THE S...A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD REMAINS OVER NERN OK...AND SWD ACROSS ERN OK WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN EXCESS OF 72 F. HERE...SBCAPE IS AVERAGING 5500-6000 J/KG. HKL AND PRC PROFILERS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO 50-60 KTS ABOVE 9 KM. STRONG HEATING PERSISTS NEAR THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. TOWERING CU PERSIST ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND HAVE A THREAT OF TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011