DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MN...ERN IA...PARTS OF
   WI/IL/MO...NERN OK AND NWRN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
   THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   1630Z OUTLOOK ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
   
   THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO EXTEND THE ERN END OF THE SLIGHT RISK
   EWD INTO NRN GA/WRN CAROLINAS/WRN VA AND WRN WV. STORMS THAT
   REDEVELOPED EAST OF MORNING MCS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...NOW STRETCH
   FROM CENTRAL KY SWD INTO NRN AL. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD AT
   30-40 KT AND NEW STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE IN
   UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET
   AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY.
   
   SLIGHT RISK IN OK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EWD DUE TO THE CURRENT LOCATION
   OF DEVELOPING CU/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WWD THIS
   EVENING...LACK OF DYNAMICAL FORCING INDICATES THREAT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS REDEVELOPING WEST OF CURRENT STORMS APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER
   ...SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN TACT BEHIND DRYLINE IN NRN OK/SRN KS WHERE
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET. ALSO... SLIGHT
   RISK EXTENDED TO THE SWRN TX/MEXICO BORDER AS STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
   BEEN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. HAIL PROBABILITIES
   WERE INCREASED NEAR DRYLINE IN TX WHERE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
   
   MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MODERATE RISK AREA FROM WI SWD INTO MO TO
   ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...ACROSS ERN MN/WI/ERN IA/ IL AND MO.
   MOST STORMS HAVE BEEN LOCATED WITHIN BANDS AND ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   HAIL..WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.  TORNADOES ARE MORE LIKELY WITH
   DISCRETE STORMS. INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN ERN IA
   AND THESE TYPE OF STORMS ARE LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED TORNADOES.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/22/2011